| Title: | Comparison of methods for the estimation of voter transition rates |
| Authors: | Andreadis, Ioannis, Ανδρεάδης, Ιωάννης, Chadjipadelis, Theodore, Χατζηπαντελής, Θεόδωρος |
| Abstract: | In this paper we compare methods for the estimation of voter transitions in multiparty systems. The simulation findings presented in this paper indicate that the VTR algorithm provided by Andreadis and Chadjipadelis gives estimates which are significantly closer to reality than the estimates given by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Hierarchical Method provided by Rosen et al. The maximum entropy approach which requires the knowledge of the general transition matrix (i.e. from an exit poll) gives estimates which are strongly influenced from this matrix. If the general transition matrix deviates from reality, the ME estimates deviate from reality in a similar way. |
| Department: | Αριστοτέλειο Πανεπιστήμιο Θεσσαλονίκης, Σχολή Νομικών Οικονομικών και Πολιτικών Επιστημών, Τμήμα Πολιτικών Επιστημών |
| Keywords: | voter transitions rates, ecological inference, electoral analysis
| Full Text: | Fulltext: Main DOC |
| Conference Data: | Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 2008 Annual Conference, Manchester [12/09/2008-14/09/2008] |
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